Poker (was Re: NLP)

Andy Wardley abw at
Fri Sep 7 14:56:03 BST 2007

Paul Orrock wrote:
> I did have to laugh at the inside straight comment. I've been there so 
> many times, and why is it that when you get the straight, someone else 
> always has you beat ?

I guess that's why they say "never draw to an inside straight".  Well, not 
unless they're suited, high ranking cards and you're playing on the button 
against tired, drunk poker novices.

The thing to remember is that you're not just playing against the odds of an 
out for your own hand (which for an inside straight are very small, typically 
< 10%).  Rather, you're playing your odds of an out against those of everyone 
else at the table.

So you might have a 1 in 12 chance of making the straight, but the guy/girl 
holding out for a flush will have higher odds (roughly 1 in 4).  So even if 
you do make the straight, there's a good chance you'll still be beat.

Apologies if I'm teaching my grandmother how to suck eggs, but I played for a 
long time before I had that "aha" moment when I figured out that it was 
relative odds that are important, not absolute ones.

Well, I think so, anyway.  I'm no poker expert so I could be talking out of my 
  nuts flush.


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